Wintermar Offshore Marine, Tbk (WINS IJ) 1H11 net profit soars 68% y-o-y to IDR79bn, accounting 52% of our FY11 target. The earnings jump is mostly on the back of owned-vessel revenue growth (+36% y-o-y) and strong growth in the 3rd party chartered vessel (+138% y-o-y) division which provides smaller margins in nature. WINS is currently trading at 9.9x and 8.2x 2011-12 PE, a 49% and 42% discount to its peers.
2Q11 results
2Q11 sales reached IDR248bn (+11% q-o-q), bringing 1H11 sales to IDR472bn (+75% y-o-y). Revenue contribution for owned vessel is 44% trimmed by higher contribution of 3rd party vessels (50%). 1H11 COGS soar 93% y-o-y on the back of a large chunking of proportion of 3rd party chartered vessel expense contribution of 63%. This brings to a lesser gross margin of 23% in 1H11 compared to 31% in 1H10 given that 3rd party chartered vessels have lesser margins (2-3%) compared to owned-vessels (40-45%).
Given its large USD debt proportion, WINS have benefited from Rupiah appreciation, bringing 1H11 forex gain to IDR28bn and a stable net margin of 17% (same compared to 1H10), which brings 1H11 bottom line to increase 68% y-o-y. WINS net gearing as of 1H11 is 32% which is less compared to our 2011 net gearing of 66%, in which we assume WINS to have substantive loans to be obtained in 2H11.
Progress remains intact
Up until 1H11, WINS has acquired 6 vessels and sold 3 vessels, which is in line with its target of acquiring 6 vessels in 1H11 and 6 vessels in 2H11, bringing WINS current possession of 62 vessels.
Earnings revision
We revise our earnings for 2011-12-13 on the basis changing our IDR assumption to IDR8,600 from previous IDR8,900, and downgrade 2012-13 earnings to have a more conservative approach given a slight worry on the adequacy of its cash for a clinch of further expansion, thus we assume a more conservative capex approach in 2012 of just IDR400bn compared to IDR855bn in 2011. WINS has won 26 out of the 42 tenders submitted this year for total outstanding tenders that were under evaluation. The total outstanding value of contract in hand as of June 30 amounted to USD102m (IDR877bn).
Why the cabotage is attractive?
The unique market opportunity brought by the cabotage regulation has made a positive impact to WINS. As at 13 July 2011, there were 111 foreign-flagged vessels in the oil & gas sector which were issued with temporary operating permits, which is a 76% increase compared to only 63 vessels in February 2010. Out of the 111 vessels, 59 vessels are high-end vessels which have a cabotage deadline end of December 2012. This will bring an opportunities for WINS as a domestic-flagged vessel operator to capture the high-segment vessel market.
Valuation is still cheap
We maintain a BUY with a target price of IDR480. WINS is currently trading at 9.9 and 8.2x 2011-12 PE, which is a 49% and 42% discount to its peers.