Big Surprise From VIVA

We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the sector, as we believe that the sector’s recovery is visible. Our Top Pick is Media Nusantara. Based on Nielsen’s data, its prime time audience share hit 45.3% in March and it still holds the dominant position. However, Surya Citra is struggling to regain its audience share, as its prime time audience share has declined 2% MoM. Visi Media Asia was the top gainer in the prime time audience share segment, rising 22% MoM, driven by its ANTV TV station.

Visi Media Asia’s prime time audience shares jumped the highest in March
According to Nielsen, Visi Media Asia (VIVA IJ, NR) saw the biggest jump in prime time audience share in March, up 22% MoM to 14.4%. This was attributed to the strong prime time performance of one of its TV stations, ANTV. Prime time audience share of ANTV surged 41% MoM to 11.7%, due to its one-off TV show the “23rd Anniversary Show”.

Furthermore, its audience share was also boosted by local and Indian language TV programmes like Pesbukers, Super Family 100, and Uttaran. After these boosts, we are likely to see prime time audience share for ANTV normalise in April, in our opinion.

Media Nusantara maintains its dominance in the prime time audience share
Media Nusantara Citra’s (Media Nusantara) (MNCN IJ, BUY, TP: IDR2,300) prime time audience share declined slightly in March by 1.1% MoM to 45.3%. It was mainly dragged by the drop in MNCTV’s prime time audience share of 4.8% MoM to 7.9%.

RCTI maintained its domination of prime time audience share in March with 31.8%, thanks to its popular TV show “Anak Jalanan”, which managed to maintain the top spot for the month. Furthermore, we foresee Media Nusantara maintaining its lead with a strong program line-up, such as The Voice, and Euro Cup 2016.

Another bad month for Surya Citra. Surya Citra Media’s (Surya Citra) (SCMA IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR3,300) prime time audience share was 26.7% (-2% MoM). We are not overly impressed by SCTV’s performance in the past few months, as its prime time audience share of 8.8% (-4% MoM) is currently at its lowest since 2011. Meanwhile, Indosiar has been able to maintain a commendable prime time audience share of 17.9%, due to its D’Academy musical variety show, which is now in its third season.

We foresee Surya Citra trying to regain its audience share through a number of strategic moves that include reducing the re-runs of the FTV series, introducing more awards programmes, and broadcasting the Indonesian Super League in April.

Trans Group was the biggest loser in March
Trans Corp reported the biggest decline in prime time audience share of -11% MoM. Both of its TV stations, Trans TV and Trans 7, reported significant declines of -17% and -7% MoM respectively. We believe its prime time audience share was captured by ANTV.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the Media Sector, with Media Nusantara as our Top Pick. We continue to see Media Nusantara as an attractive stock in this sector, as we think that it could book better ad revenue growth in FY16-FY17 from its domination of audience share, which translates to a higher rate card.

We believe that the stabilisation of IDR against USD could also improve its earnings in FY16. Meanwhile, we remain NEUTRAL on Surya Citra, as we await the outcome of its efforts to improve its audience share.