Kategori: Infrastructure Transportation

The Indonesian telco sector is a NEUTRAL for 2014 given the combination of (i) macro-economic/political headwinds, (ii) earnings pressure from higher data opex/decelerating revenue growth & (iii) sustained capex spending. We like the ITC (OVERWEIGHT) due to their stronger earnings prospects. A stock-picking strategy to identify companies with discernible price catalysts and a good track.

WINS posted stellar 9M13 net profit of USD18m (+26.5% y-o-y), beating our expectations at 79%/80% of our/consensus estimates respectively. Such robust core earnings growth since its IPO is a re-rating catalyst, in our view. We increase our 2013/14 earnings by 1%/11% respectively, as WINS has raised its capex estimates to USD90m (+80% above our conservative.

We believe MBSS should be able to book higher coal volumes in 2013 and 2014 despite expecting clients to renegotiate rates, as long-term customers will bulk up volumes to compensate for lower fees. We trim our DCF-based TP to IDR1,400 and lower our 2013/14 earnings by 5/9%, but maintain a BUY call as it still.

Despite foreseeable fee re-negotiations by customers, we view that MBSS should be able to deliver stronger coal volumes in 2013 and 2014 as a compensation given by its long-term customers for lower fees. We lower our DCF based TP to IDR1,400 as we lower our 2013 and 2014 earnings by 5%/9%, yet maintain our BUY.

We cut earnings by 4% and 3% for 2013 and 2014 respectively mainly due to our lower than expected fee per tonnage assumption. Despite foreseeable contract fee re-negotiations by customers post 2014, we are of the view that MBSS should be able to have vessel expansion in 2014 as more coal volumes would be delivered.

PGAS’s 9M13 forex and derivative gains offset its slightly lower-than-expected distribution volume, bringing 9M13 earnings to USD642m (+3.3% y-o-y) or 76% of our and consensus estimates each. Its share price has declined, due to recent investor sentiment over the open-access policy that could threaten its dominance in the distribution business. Maintain BUY, with a lower.

PGAS’ 1H13 net profit was in line, at 52% and 53% of our and street estimates respectively. Gross margin fell to 47% in 1H13 from 61% in 1H12 on gas cost hikes in Sept 2012 and 1 Apr 2013. PGAS is now trading at an 18% discount to its 5-year historical forward P/E and is.

MBSS’ 1H13 net profit was spot-on, representing 46% of our FY13 earnings estimate. We expect 4Q13 to be its peak quarter, spurred by China’s strong coal demand during the winter season. All in, the company’s outlook remains intact, with possible vessel expansion should the company secure new contracts in 2H13, though this is not yet.

UNTR’s 1H13 revenue and earnings fell 18.7% and 25.2% y-o-y respectively While revenue made up 55% and 57% of consensus and our FY13F estimates respectively, its earnings only comprised 45% and 47% of the respective forecasts, no thanks to margin pressure. We cut our FY14F numbers by 19.5% on its deteriorating earnings. Maintain NEUTRAL call.

WIKA booked a 55.7% net profit growth y-o-y in 1HFY13 to arrive at 50.5%/46.4% of the Company’s/our FY13 estimate respectively – in line. It is on track to unlock the value of subsidiary PT Wijaya Karya Beton (WIKA Beton) through an IPO that is slated to conclude in 2HFY13. We call for a BUY on.