Wintermar Not As Expected

By administrator | January 6, 2012 | Infrastructure Transportation.

As per conversation with the company, Wintermar Offshore Marine, Tbk (WINS IJ) 2011 bottom line will be slightly below the company’s initial target of around IDR140bn mainly caused by hefty USD loan obtained at an unfavourable exchange rate of USD/IDR8,500, whereas current exchange rate is at the USD/IDR9,183 level causing an expense numb of forex loss, which will suppress 2011 bottom line figure below its initial target, however we do expect a 27% y-o-y growth for its 2011 bottom line amounting to IDR134bn.

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Komet Infra Push Sarana Menara Nusantara’s Revenue Growth 6%

KEB Hana Third Party Fund IDR22.50Trn

Waskita Karya Prepare Internal Cash to Pay Maturing Bonds

Indonesia Is Ready to Face the Pressure Of Rupiah

Incoming Bids Surged to IDR42.32T, Highest This Year

Despite this, we believe organic growth remains intact. We put a BUY with a target price of IDR480 as this stock still provides attractive 2012 earnings growth supported by conducive cabotage regulation and strong organic growth as well as a relatively cheap valuation of 2012-13 PER of 7x and 6x respectively.

2012 assumptions
We expect WINS 2012 revenue to increase 26% y-o-y on the back of higher existing vessel revenue portion as plenty as the new vessel contract back in 1H11 to be fully recognized in 2012, not to forget props from 6 new confirmed vessel purchases which is expected to lift WINS’ revenue. Also, the company believes there is room for growth for re-chartering vessel division, thus we set a conservative 9% growth for this division in 2012.

We expect gross margin to slightly improve to 29% from 28% in 2011 on the back of higher portion of owned vessels, offsetting the depreciation expense (linked to COGS). We expect higher interest expense in 2012 as full interest payment from hefty loans obtained in 1H11 to be paid in a fully annual basis.

Vale Indonesia Nickel in Matte Production Declines 6% YoY

Intermedia Capital Revenue Increase 16% in 3Q17

PLN Issues Bonds to Refinancing its Debt

Shelf Registration II WOM Finance Tranche II Year 2017

Indonesia’s External Debt Rises 7.6% YoY

Government Spending and Revenue Realization Reached Only 75.9% and 76%

Financial injection from IFC to support expansion
WINS recently obtained USD45m loan facility from IFC (International Finance Corporation) with a maturity of 7 years as to support its vessel expansion in 2012. We believe the USD45m worth of loan is adequate to support 2012 capex target of USD66m. We believe WINS has a strong financial back up to support its expansion, thus cash adequacy would not be a hurdle.

Intiland Development Buys Land for IDR1.27Trn

Chandra Asri Global Bond Oversubscribed 7.33 Times

Perusahaan Listrik Negara Set Indicative Coupon Bond at 7.2% – 8.7%

FR0075’s Transactions Highest in September

Bonds Auction Oversubscribed by 3.7 Times

Investment Grows at Slowest Rate in 1Q17

Industry outlook remains conducive
WINS industry atmosphere remains attractive partly backed by Indonesia’s 2012 oil output to rise to 930k – 950k barrels/day from only 903k barrels/day in 2011. Furthermore, the cabotage law deadline for Diving Support Vessel is at December 2012, bringing further potential catalyst for WINS to acquire/purchase mid-class type of vessels going forward.

Valuation
WINS is currently trading at 7x and 6x 2012-13 PER. We expect the company to distribute dividend this year based on last year’s earnings, providing dividend yield of 2.3% and 2.7% for 2012-13. We maintain our 2012 target PE based target price of IDR480. BUY.